Yes, Figure 1 is consistent with our view of how the private sector will be involved in financing electric vehicle infrastructure (EVI) in Scotland across the next five years.
It is expected that the private sector will provide more investment than the public sector (where available) within procurements. In some cases, the private sector will offer to fully fund EVI contracts, depending on the area and the commercial interest of the project. Further considerations can be seen through alternative financing models in the response to Question 3.
It is important to consider the impact of relying heavily on the private sector to deliver future public EVI. The private sector can only run the network if it is a profitable exercise. It will therefore gravitate towards higher traffic, higher profit locations and tend to avoid areas likely to see lower usage. Without intervention, this risks certain areas being left behind in the clean energy transition, for example rural and island areas.
There may be solutions that ensure all areas can cover their costs as a minimum – such as reducing CapEx and OpEx costs with integrated battery storage. If such solutions don’t materialise, then either the private sector will be allowed to largely disregard these areas, leaving the public sector to step in as provider of last resort, or the private sector will be compelled as a condition of local authority concession contracts to attend to these areas.
The former option will mean propping up loss-leading locations with public money, while the private sector capitalises on profitable locations. This could be perceived as an inequitable situation. The latter option will require private providers increasing tariffs to cover their losses in lower traffic areas.
This will increase the cost and convenience charging gap between people with off-street parking who are able to access cheap overnight tariffs and those wholly reliant on more expensive public charging. This could potentially exacerbate inequality and compromise a just transition. The higher cost of charging could also disincentivise switching to EVs and slow the clean energy transition.
These are the risks of depending on the private sector to deliver this transition. An alternative approach would be to treat this infrastructure as an extension of the publicly funded road networks and fund it from the public purse. The risks and advantages of both approaches should be fully considered in the context of the Scottish Government’s social and environmental ambitions.
It is also worth noting that vehicle Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) may be well placed to run a private network, as the existence of a well-functioning, comprehensive network will underpin their EV sales success. They may be able to hedge the low margins of operating an effective network across the more profitable parts of their portfolio – ie vehicle sales.
This could explain why, according to ZapMap, Tesla ranked the highest for user satisfaction in the ‘ large’ category (300+ rapid/ultra-rapid) in the UK in 2024 – achieving a 4.7 star rating vs second placed MFG’s 3.8 stars. In the medium network rankings (100-300 rapid/ultra-rapid), the major vehicle OEM joint venture, Ionity, ranked second. These OEMs have significant legacy ICE technology investments they still want to maximise returns on and are therefore arguably not yet fully committed to electrification.
This high ranking of some OEM’s could therefore be a conservative indication of what’s achievable once these companies have fully committed to the low carbon transition.